Peer-Reviewed Journal Details
Mandatory Fields
Travesset-Baro, O;Gallachoir, BPO;Jover, E;Rosas-Casals, M
2016
September
Energy Policy
Transport energy demand in Andorra. Assessing private car futures through sensitivity and scenario analysis
Validated
Optional Fields
FUEL CONSUMPTION ELECTRIC VEHICLES POLICY EMISSIONS EFFICIENCY EVOLUTION IRELAND MODELS FLEET CO2
96
78
92
This paper presents a model which estimates current car fleet energy consumption in Andorra and forecasts such consumption as a reference scenario. The base-year model is built through a bottom-up methodology using vehicle registration and technical inspection data. The model forecasts energy consumption up to 2050, taking into account the fleet structure, the car survival profile, trends in activity of the various car categories, and the fuel price and income elasticities that affect car stock and total fleet activity. It provides an initial estimate of private car energy demand in Andorra and charts a baseline scenario that describes a hypothetical future based on historical trends. A local sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most sensitive input parameters and study the effect of its variability. In addition, the scenario analysis explores the most uncertain future aspects which can cause important variability in the results with respect to the Reference scenario and provides a broad estimate of potential energy savings related to different policy strategies. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
OXFORD
0301-4215
10.1016/j.enpol.2016.05.041
Grant Details