Peer-Reviewed Journal Details
Mandatory Fields
Glynn, James; Gargiulo, Maurizio; Chiodi, Alessandro; Deane, Paul; Rogan, Fionn; Ó Gallachóir, Brian
Climate Policy
Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement
Optional Fields
Carbon budgets Climate change Climate mitigation Decarbonization Equity ETSAP Integrated energy system models Macroeconomic feedback Paris Agreement TIMES-MACRO
The Paris Agreement is the last hope to keep global temperature rise below 2°C. The consensus agrees to holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim for 1.5°C. Each Party’s successive nationally determined contribution (NDC) will represent a progression beyond the party’s then current NDC, and reflect its highest possible ambition. Using Ireland as a test case, we show that increased mitigation ambition is required to meet the Paris Agreement goals in contrast to current EU policy goals of an 80–95% reduction by 2050. For the 1.5°C consistent carbon budgets, the technically feasible scenarios' abatement costs rise to greater than €8,100/tCO2 by 2050. The greatest economic impact is in the short term. Annual GDP growth rates in the period to 2020 reduce from 4% to 2.2% in the 1.5°C scenario. While aiming for net zero emissions beyond 2050, investment decisions in the next 5–10 years are critical to prevent carbon lock-in.
Grant Details