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Killeen, G.F. & S.S. Kiware
Modelling COVID-19 Simplified Arithmetic Tools
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Here we present simplified arithmetic modelling tools for predicting COVID-19 transmission dynamics and how it is likely to respond to different containment, delay or mitigation strategies
In the manuscript also provided, these simplified modelling tools are used to illustrate (1) why ambitious lock-down interventions to crush the curve represent the only realistic way for individual countries to contain their national-level epidemics before they turn into outright catastrophes, (2) why these need to be implemented so early, so stringently and for such extended periods, (3) why high prevalence of other pathogens causing similar symptoms to mild COVID-19 precludes the use of contact tracing as a substitute for lock down interventions to contain and eliminate epidemics, (4) why partial containment strategies intended to merely flatten the curve, by maintaining epidemics at managably low levels, are grossly unrealistic, and (5) why local elimination may only be sustained after lock down ends if imported cases are comprehensively excluded, so international co-operation to conditionally re-open trade and travel between countries certified as free of COVID-19 represents perhaps the best strategy for motivating progress towards pandemic eradication at global level.
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