Oltchev, A and Cermak, J and Gurtz, J and Tishenko, A and Kiely, G and Nadezhdina, N and Zappa, M and Lebedeva, N and Vitvar, T and Albertson, JD and Tatarinov, F and Tishenko, D and Nadezhdin, V and Kozlov, B and Ibrom, A and Vygodskaya, N and Gravenhorst, G;

2002

Physics And Chemistry Of The Earth

The response of the water fluxes of the boreal forest region at the Volga's source area to climatic and land-use changes

Validated

()

27

9-10

675

690

The project ``Volgaforest'' was focused on a study of the water budget of the forested Upper Volga catchment in Russia in order to describe: (1) the terrestrial water balance of the Upper Volga catchment as a function of external factors, such as climate and land-use, and (2) the response of forest ecosystems to these external factors. Future changes of water budget of the Upper Volga catchment area were estimated from: past and present dynamics of the atmospheric, water and forest conditions, different climatic scenarios and SVAT (Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer) and hydrological models. Analysis of past climatological and hydrological data showed a large atmospheric and hydrological variability of the Upper Volga catchment. During the last 50-60 years the mean annual air temperature increased by 1.2 degreesC, and annual precipitation increased by 140 mm. However, no significant trend of annual runoff during the last 20 years could be found. Air temperature and precipitation changes were significant during winter and spring but very small in summer. Coniferous and mixed coniferous-broadleaf forests cover at present about 72\% of the catchment area. During the last 30 years the area of natural coniferous forests (spruce, pine) decreased from 8.4\% to 7\% and the area of mixed forests increased from 52\% to 59\% of the total land area. Results of field measurements at a forest site showed a large variability of energy and water fluxes during the entire year. Transpiration of the boreal forest ecosystem measured using a sap flow method during the dry summer 1999 was limited by very dry soil water conditions. especially for spruce trees. and during the rainy summer 2000 probably by lack of oxygen in the rooting zone. Transpiration was about 10-20\% larger for broadleaf trees (birch, aspen) than for spruce trees. Model estimations of possible changes in the hydrological regime of the Upper Volga catchment area for climatic scenarios suggest changes of evapotranspiration, surface runoff and soil moisture storage, Reduced snow accumulation, earlier melting, increased runoff reaction on precipitation in autumn and winter and drier soils in summer are the principal impacts on water resources of predicted future climatic changes. Surface runoff during the spring will be higher but summer and autumn runoff can be slightly suppressed by higher transpiration of deciduous tree species. Decreased summer precipitation and increased transpiration will result in decreasing ground water discharge, and lowering water levels of Volga river and of the Upper Volga lakes. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.