Peer-Reviewed Journal Details
Mandatory Fields
Ryan G. and E. Shinnick
2011
Unknown
Journal of Economic Policy Reform
Real Economic Indicators: Should we have paid more attention
In Press
()
Optional Fields
14
2
105
126

The ability to predict business cycle activity is an invaluable skill for governments and policy makers alike, especially before an economy enters a downturn. We analyse causality relationships between key leading economic indicators and economic growth for three countries from 1970 to 2010. We find that while many indicators do not help explain current movements in GDP growth, lags of these indicators do. In addition, the direction of the change and the size of the change in the lagged economic indicators are very important in many cases.  This is particularly true for housing indicators.

1748-7870
Grant Details